Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $202,584$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,335.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 77.5)}}\) (asimptote \(233,335.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,507$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.66 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,516.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 51.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,516.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,693$ on 2020-06-20

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,145$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(601 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,578.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 90.1)}}\) (asimptote \(41,578.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $319$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(18.2 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{343.3}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 52.9)}}\) (asimptote \(343.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,100$ on 2020-06-20

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $186,493$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{170,558.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(170,558.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,927$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,685.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 34.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,685.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,738$ on 2020-06-20

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $154,233$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{205,464.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 86.1)}}\) (asimptote \(205,464.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,230$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(35.3 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.6\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,086$ on 2020-06-20

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,331$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(289 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,831.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 114.2)}}\) (asimptote \(39,831.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(0.609 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,481$ on 2020-06-20

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,633$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(4.57 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,508.5}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(17,508.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $305$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(89.6 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{290.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 29.1)}}\) (asimptote \(290.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,742$ on 2020-06-20

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $86,488$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,396.0}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 89.2)}}\) (asimptote \(103,396.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.75 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,631$ on 2020-06-20

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,533$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,923.6}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 86.6)}}\) (asimptote \(48,923.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $301$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(38.3 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{288.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 47.3)}}\) (asimptote \(288.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,478$ on 2020-06-20

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 89%
Singapore recovered 64%
Sri Lanka recovered 51%
Kuwait recovered 49%
Qatar recovered 45%
United Arab Emirates recovered 27%
Lebanon recovered 27%
Tajikistan recovered 23%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,556$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(2.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,034.3}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,034.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(55.7 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 17.6)}}\) (asimptote \(115.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $289$ on 2020-06-20

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,833$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,199.0}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 101.4)}}\) (asimptote \(41,199.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(6.76 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25.8}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(25.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,583$ on 2020-06-20

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,950$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(169 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,415.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 67.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,415.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(5.74 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(75.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 17.2)}}\) (asimptote \(13.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $467$ on 2020-06-20

Lebanon⮸

Population $6,825,445$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,536$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(231 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,885.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 73.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,885.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $32$ on 2020-06-20

Best fit exponential: \(10.5 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27.9}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 25.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $498$ on 2020-06-20